Russia's biggest crisis in 200 years: Birth rate at lowest level since 1800, Ukraine war increases Putin's difficulties

New Delhi, April 16, 2025: The birth rate in Russia has reached a 200-year low, the lowest since 1800. According to Russian demographer Alexei Raksha, only 293,000-294,000 children were born in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest since the end of the 18th century. Heavy military losses, youth migration, and economic uncertainty due to the Ukraine War have further deepened this demographic crisis. This has emerged as a new and big challenge for President Vladimir Putin, who has been trying to increase the birth rate for a long time. Let us understand the facts, causes, and effects of this crisis in detail.

Historic drop in Russia's birth rate

According to Russian statistics agency Rosstat, only 1.22 million babies will be born in Russia in 2024, the lowest since 1999. The number was 1.26 million in 2023, down 700,000 from 1.94 million in 2014. Demographer Defense estimates that only 95,000-96,000 babies were born in March 2025, down from February's lowest monthly figure in 200 years. The total fertility rate is 1.41, well below the 2.1 needed for population stability. In some regions such as Kaluga and Ivanovo, the death rate is twice the birth rate.

Impact of Ukraine war

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022, has exacerbated this crisis. An estimated 700,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in the war, which took a heavy toll on the young male population. In addition, more than 900,000 people, mostly young people, left Russia to avoid military conscription. This exodus (brain drain) further reduced the reproductive age group. Demographer Ilya Kashnitsky said that war and economic uncertainty reduced people's confidence in the future, reducing their desire to start a family.

Putin's policies and failure

Putin has made birth rate his priority and has implemented several policies. In December 2024, he launched a "Strategy of Action", which aims to bring the fertility rate to 1.6 by 2030 and 1.8 by 2036. This includes measures such as maternity capital, payments to female students aged 18-23 for having children, and tax exemptions for large families. Some regions, such as Chelyabinsk, started paying Rs 9.4 lakh to mothers under the age of 24.

However, these policies have failed. Experts say it is "irrational" to send men to the front during a war and try to increase the birth rate. The Kremlin banned content promoting a "child-free" lifestyle and limited abortions, but these steps were also not effective. #RussiaBirthRate trends on social media, with users calling it "Putin's failure".

Economic and social reasons

Western sanctions and the cost of war have increased pressure on Russia's economy. The devaluation of the ruble and rising inflation made raising children more expensive for families. Demographer Dmitry Zakotyansky estimated that up to 200,000 Russian soldiers died in the war, which further reduced the male population. At the same time, labor migration from Central Asia declined, as fear of being recruited for the war deterred people from coming to Russia.

Future Challenges

Russia's population is projected to reach 146 million in 2024, including Crimea's 2 million population. The United Nations estimates that if this trend continues, Russia's population could fall to 120 million by 2075. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko warned that there could be a shortage of 2.4 million workers by 2030. This crisis could affect Russia's economic stability and military strength.

Conclusion

Russia's demographic crisis, the most severe since the 1800s, is the result of the Ukrainian war, economic crisis, and social uncertainty. Putin's policies, such as financial stimulus and abortion bans, have failed to halt this decline. This crisis could weaken not only Russia's population but also its global influence. Will Putin be able to overcome this challenge, or will Russia become a country "without Russians"? Only time will tell.