Kiev/Moscow: The Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022, has entered its fourth year, and there are no clear signs of it ending even in 2025. In recent months, steps such as US President Donald Trump's mediation, talks in Saudi Arabia, and a ceasefire in the Black Sea have raised hopes of peace, but deep differences between Russia and Ukraine and geopolitical pressures are complicating it. Will this war end in 2025, or will it drag on longer? Let's analyze the situation based on facts and latest developments.
Current state of the war
The Russia-Ukraine war has so far claimed millions of lives and caused heavy damage to the economies of both countries. According to the United Nations, at least 11,700 Ukrainian civilians have been killed, while the armies of Russia and Ukraine have also suffered heavy casualties. Ukraine's economy suffered losses of $150 billion, and Russia spent $211 billion on the war.
The nature of the war has changed in 2025. Russia maintains control over 17% of Ukraine's territory, including Crimea and Donbass. In recent months, Russia has intensified missile and drone attacks on cities such as Kiev, Sumy, and Zhytomyr, killing 9 people in Kiev on April 24. Ukraine, on the other hand, carried out drone attacks in Russian regions such as Kursk and Engels.
Peace talks and Trump's role
The biggest hope for peace in 2025 is linked to the mediation of US President Donald Trump. Ukraine accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposal in March 2025 after marathon talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia. Trump held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, agreeing on a ceasefire in the Black Sea, a prisoner of war exchange, and a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure.
"Had a productive conversation with Putin. This bloody war is likely to end," Trump wrote on X on March 14. Putin also agreed to the ceasefire terms, but demanded that Russia retain control over Crimea and Donbass. However, Zelensky rejected the US proposal on April 24, which called for leaving Crimea under Russian control.
Why is the war not stopping?
Several factors are prolonging the war:
- Dispute over Crimea and Donbass: Russia considers Crimea to be its part, while Ukraine is adamant on taking it back. Zelensky said, “We will not agree to any deal without our consent.”
- Weapons shortage: Western aid to Ukraine is declining. Trump halted new military aid, weakening Ukraine's position.
- North Korea's role: North Korea sent troops and weapons to Russia, giving Russia an edge in areas such as Kursk.
- Economic pressure: Both Russia and Ukraine are struggling with economic crisis, but lack the will to prevent war. Half of Ukraine's power grid has been destroyed, which could deepen the crisis in winter.
International response
India: India has advocated peace. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said, "Indian students returned safely from Ukraine due to PM Modi's efforts." Russia's ambassador considered India suitable for a peace proposal.
United Nations: The UN condemned Russia's attacks, especially the April 24 Kiev attack, which injured children and a pregnant woman.
NATO: NATO talked about increasing support to Ukraine, but Trump's stance created uncertainty.
What do experts say?
Experts believe that the chances of the war ending completely in 2025 are low. Professor Srikanth Kondapalli said, “Peace is impossible without agreement on Crimea and Donbass.” Some believe that Trump’s “America First” policy may force Ukraine to make concessions. On the other hand, Russia’s economic constraints and Ukraine’s military weakness may bring both to the negotiating table.
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