1. Will Pakistan respond militarily?
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called the attacks an "act of war" and has said that they will respond. The Pakistani military claimed it shot down five Indian fighter jets and a drone, though India did not confirm this. Pakistan carried out missile attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir on May 7, killing three civilians. Experts believe Pakistan's response may be limited and symbolic, as both countries are nuclear powers, and will try to avoid a full-blown war.
2. What will be the form of the retaliation?
Pakistan has responded to Indian attacks with limited military actions in the past as well. After the 2019 Pulwama attack, Pakistan raided Indian airspace, following which an Indian pilot was captured. This time, Pakistan has already carried out artillery strikes, killing 15 Indian civilians. Analysts say Pakistan may restrict the retaliatory strikes to the Line of Control (LoC), to avoid a wider conflict. However, a Pakistani military spokesperson has spoken of choosing a "time and place", which creates uncertainty.
3. Will the retaliation escalate tensions?
The Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, which has been going on since 1947, has been the cause of several wars and clashes. Both countries have exercised restraint in recent years, such as the ceasefire on the LoC in 2021. However, this time both sides have downgraded diplomatic ties—India suspended the Indus Water Treaty, while Pakistan scrapped the Shimla Agreement. Experts warn that retaliatory actions could turn "controlled hostilities" into a full-blown war, especially when both countries are armed with nuclear weapons.
4. What will be the role of the international community?
The United Nations, the US, the UK, and the UAE have appealed to both countries to exercise restraint. US President Donald Trump said he hopes it "ends quickly." Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi tried to mediate between the two countries. However, global powers are busy with other crises, which may limit pressure on India-Pakistan. Experts believe that diplomacy is the only thing that can de-escalate this crisis, but for that both sides will have to come to the negotiating table.
Conclusion
The possibility of Pakistan retaliating is high, but its form and consequences are uncertain. The nuclear capabilities of both countries and international pressure may keep it to a limited conflict. Still, the growing tension in Kashmir and the lack of diplomatic avenues complicate the situation. Will this crisis lead to peace or war? It depends on time and the decisions of the leadership of both countries.
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