Iran-Israel war: What will be China's role if the fire flares up further?

The growing tension between Iran and Israel in the Middle East is affecting the global balance of power. Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Fordo in 2025 and Iran's retaliatory attacks have brought the region to the brink of war. In this complex geopolitical scenario, all eyes are on the role of world superpower China. If this conflict flares up further, will China actively intervene? Let us analyze in this article, based on facts, what steps China can take and what are its strategic interests behind it.

China and Iran: A strategic alliance

The 25-year cooperation agreement between China and Iran in 2021 is the key to understanding China's role in this war. Under this agreement, China promised to invest $400 billion in Iran's economy, in return for supplying oil from Iran at concessional rates. This investment helps strengthen Iran's military capabilities, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). According to recent reports, China has supplied Iran with dual-use technology and weapons, often through intermediaries such as Pakistan or North Korea.

China has supported Iran's nuclear program and advocated for the revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In June 2025, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian condemned Israel's attacks on Iran and appealed for regional peace. Despite this, China has refrained from overt military intervention, reflecting its strategy to maintain its image as a neutral and responsible power.

China's possible steps if conflict escalates

1. Diplomatic pressure and mediation: China has advocated for de-escalation in the Middle East. In June 2025, it welcomed a joint statement by Arab and Islamic countries and expressed its willingness to play a constructive role in de-escalation. If the war escalates, China may promote peace talks in forums such as the United Nations. However, it will be inclined towards Iran, as Iran is its important energy partner.
2. Weapons and technical assistance: Some reports claim that China has supplied Iran with thousands of tons of material for ballistic missiles, which may also be given to Yemen's Houthi rebels. This assistance is a way to strengthen Iran without direct military intervention. However, China may avoid direct military support, as it could escalate confrontation with the US and its allies.
3. Economic support: Iran's economy has been weakened by Israeli attacks and Western sanctions. China may support Iran through economic assistance, such as oil purchases or investments in infrastructure projects. This will give Iran the strength to survive the war.

Increasing regional influence: As part of its strategy to reduce US influence in the Middle East, China may use this conflict to increase its regional influence. According to Gordon Chang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute, if Iran is harmed, China's economy will also suffer, as it accounts for 90% of Iran's oil exports.

China's limitations and risks

China's global economic slowdown and strained relations with the US prevent it from direct military intervention. If it openly supports Iran, it could escalate confrontation with the US and NATO, raising fears of a global war. Furthermore, China's Middle East policy has been described by many analysts as "messy" as it seeks stability in the region, but its support of Iran pits it against Israel and its allies.

Regional and global impact

China's role in the Iran-Israel war will have ramifications at both regional and global levels. If China increases military support, it could force the US and NATO to retaliate. Countries like India, which have trade ties with both Iran and Israel, will be affected by this conflict, especially if trade routes such as the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted.

Conclusion

China is currently standing by Iran in the Israel-Iran war through diplomatic and economic support, but is refraining from direct military intervention. Its goal is to increase its influence in the Middle East and challenge US dominance, but it is being cautious to avoid a global confrontation. The next few months will determine whether China will play a more active role in this war or adopt a policy of neutrality.