Historic decision of caste census: Why did the Modi government choose this time amid the Pahalgam crisis, what is the strategy?

New Delhi: In a historic decision, the central government has announced to include caste census (Caste Census 2025) in the next census. This decision has come at a time when India-Pakistan tension is at its peak after the Pahalgam terror attack. Union Home Minister Amit Shah called it a “historic step for social justice”, while the opposition called it a “political move” ahead of the Bihar Assembly elections (Bihar Elections 2025). Why did the Modi government take this decision at this sensitive time? #CasteCensus and #ModiGovt are trending on X. Let us understand the timing of this decision and the strategy behind it with facts.

Background of the decision

On 30 April 2025, the caste census was approved in a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA) chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said in the press conference, “Congress and its allies opposed the caste census for decades. Our government will implement it in a transparent manner.” This will be the first time that caste-based data will be collected in the national census after 1931.

The census in India takes place every ten years, but it was postponed in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The opposition, especially Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, had been demanding a caste census for a long time. The caste census of Bihar in 2023 revealed a population of 36% extremely backward classes and 27% backward classes, which gave the issue a national thrust.

Decision time: Why amid the Pahalgam crisis?

After the terror attack in Pahalgam on April 22, in which 28 people were killed, the government took tough steps like Indus Water Treaty suspension and Attari border closure. In such a situation, the decision of caste census is surprising. There could be several reasons behind this:

1. Bihar election strategy: Bihar is due for assembly elections in late 2025, where caste equations are decisive. Bihar's 2023 caste census had benefited Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav's parties. The Modi government's decision could be a strategy to attract OBC and EBC voters. Tejashwi Yadav called it a "victory for Lalu Yadav and the socialists."
2. Snatching the opposition's issue: Rahul Gandhi and the INDIA alliance had made the caste census a major issue in the 2024 and 2029 elections. The government has tried to weaken the opposition's narrative with this decision. Congress' Jairam Ramesh said, "Better late than never," but also called it a victory of the Congress' demand.
3. Message of social justice: The government claimed that the decision would strengthen the social and economic structure. Vaishnav said, "Like the previous EWS reservation, this move will maintain social harmony." Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar welcomed the decision.
4. Diverting attention from Pahalgam crisis: Some analysts believe the government took this step to divert attention from the issue of national security. On X, @Bitt2DA wrote, “Amid Pahalgam tension, Modi ji snatched this issue from Congress.”

Opposition and public reaction

Rahul Gandhi welcomed the decision but said the 50% reservation cap will have to be removed. Tejashwi Yadav called it “historic”, while BJP’s Dilip Jaiswal and Samrat Chaudhary called it a step towards social justice. On X, the public called it a “masterstroke”, but some questioned the timing. @ndtvindia wrote, “Modi government will conduct caste census.”

Possible impact

• Policy making: Caste data will lead to targeted schemes for OBCs, SCs, and STs.
• Electoral equations: Caste-based vote banks will be affected in states like Bihar, UP.
• Social tension: Vaishnav promises transparency, but some experts fear social divisions.

Conclusion

The Modi government's caste census decision is a mix of social justice and political strategy. Taken in the midst of the Pahalgam crisis and the Bihar elections, the move challenges the opposition and tries to woo OBC-EBC voters. But will it strengthen social unity, or create new controversies? The answer will be found in the census results and the 2029 elections.