Pakistan claims: India may take military action in the next 24-36 hours, why did the fear increase after the Pahalgam attack?

Islamabad/New Delhi: Pakistan on Wednesday claimed that it has "credible intelligence" that India is planning military action against it in the next 24 to 36 hours. The statement comes amid growing tensions between the two countries after the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, in which 26 people were killed. Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said in an emergency press conference at 2 am that India is preparing to attack using the Pahalgam attack as a "false excuse". But why is Pakistan afraid of this, and what are the reasons behind it? Let's know with the facts.

Basis of Pakistan's fear

Pakistan's claim is based on a number of incidents and recent actions by India:

1. India's aggressive stance after Pahalgam attack: India blamed the attack on The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, and called it Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on April 24 that terrorists and their "supporters" would be hunted down and punished "in any corner of the earth". On Tuesday, Modi gave "complete operational freedom" to the armed forces, raising fears of a military crackdown.
2. India's diplomatic and military actions: India took a number of steps after the attack, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), cancelling visas for Pakistani citizens, closing the Attari-Wagah border and expelling the Pakistani military attache. Pakistan retaliated by calling these "aggressive" steps, such as closing the airspace to Indian flights.
3. Border tension: Firing has been going on for six consecutive nights along the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border. The Indian Army gave an “immediate and proportionate” response to the “unprovoked” firing by the Pakistani Army late on Tuesday night. Pakistan also claimed to have shot down an Indian drone.
4. Pakistan's intelligence: Tarar claimed Pakistan had “credible intelligence”, but did not provide any concrete evidence of it. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told Reuters on Monday that India's military intervention is “imminent”, and Pakistan is on high alert.

Pakistan's claim and its strategy

“India has assumed itself to be the judge, jury and executioner in the region, which is completely irresponsible,” Pakistan's Information Minister Tarar wrote on X. He warned that any military action would be met with a “decisive response”, and India would be held responsible for “devastating consequences”.

• Diplomatic pressure: Source: https://youtu.be/z_4kVsj9m2U Experts believe the claim may be part of Pakistan's strategy aimed at drawing the attention of the international community and pressuring India. Pakistan has demanded an "impartial investigation" into the Pahalgam attack from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
• Internal pressure: Pakistan has been witnessing widespread protests against the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty. Tarar's statement may be an attempt to show the domestic public that the government is keeping the situation under control.

India's response

India's foreign and defence ministries have not commented on Tarar's claims. However, according to sources, India's Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) is meeting on Wednesday to discuss the matter with Modi, home, defence, finance and foreign ministers.

India has claimed the involvement of Pakistani elements in the attack, which Islamabad rejected. India labelled Pakistan a “supporter of global terror” at the United Nations.

International reaction

UN Secretary-General Guterres appealed to both countries to avoid “catastrophic consequences”. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged both sides not to escalate tensions and said he would speak to his counterparts soon. Britain warned against travel to Jammu and Kashmir, and China advised restraint for the sake of regional stability.

Social media buzz

Pakistani users on Twitter called Tarar’s statement evidence of “India’s fear”, while Indian users called it “Pakistan’s panic”. “Press conference at 2 am? Looks like Pakistan has lost sleep,” wrote one user.

What happens next?

Experts say India’s chances of military action will increase only if there is concrete evidence. India had carried out airstrikes in Balakot after the 2019 Pulwama attack, which brought the two countries to the brink of war.

Pakistan's claim reflects its defence preparedness and diplomatic strategy, but without evidence it could also be a piece of propaganda.

Conclusion

Pakistan's fear stems from India's aggressive diplomacy, military preparedness and border tensions after the Pahalgam attack. Tarar's late night statement and the intelligence claim highlight the deep mistrust between the two countries. The eyes of the international community are now fixed on India's next move and Pakistan's response. Will this tension turn into war, or will diplomacy win, the next few hours will tell.