How much did the US attacks set Iran's nuclear program back? Was the dream of an atomic bomb shattered?

The US airstrikes on Iran's three major nuclear sites—Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan—on June 22, 2025 dealt a major blow to Iran's nuclear program. President Donald Trump claimed that these attacks "completely destroyed" Iran's nuclear capability, but experts say assessing the damage is complex. Let's analyze, based on facts, how much Iran's nuclear program has been set back and what its future holds.

Impact of the attacks: How much damage?

The US attacked Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan with B-2 bombers and 30,000-pound GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The centrifuge hall at Natanz and the uranium production facilities at Isfahan were damaged. The IAEA confirmed on 23 June 2025 that there was no radiation leak, but Iran's Foreign Ministry acknowledged on 25 June that the facilities had suffered "heavy damage". Fordow, which lies under 90 metres of rock, could not be completely destroyed by GBU-57 bombs, as they are only effective up to 65 metres.

Experts estimate that more than 50% of the centrifuges at Natanz, which are crucial for uranium enrichment, were destroyed. Fordow's advanced centrifuge system suffered partial damage, while Isfahan's Khondab heavy water reactor was severely affected. Iran's Atomic Energy Organization suspended cooperation with the IAEA, making an accurate assessment of the damage difficult.

How far back?

Chinese expert Zhang Junshe says the attacks set Iran's nuclear program back by 3–5 years. Repairing and rebuilding the centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow could take years. However, satellite images showed that there was unusual activity at Fordo on June 19-20 before the attacks, indicating that Iran had already moved critical materials. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed that the nuclear program is "completely safe", but experts consider this an exaggeration.

Iran's counter strategy

Iran has vowed to accelerate its nuclear program. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said, "Our nuclear program is peaceful and nobody can stop it." Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz or attack US bases in the region, causing oil prices to rise 9%.

Conclusion

The US attacks dealt a severe blow to Iran's nuclear program, especially Natanz and Isfahan, but Fordo's underground infrastructure and previously moved materials prevented complete destruction. The program may be set back 3-5 years, but Iran's counter strategy and regional tensions remain a threat to global stability.