Iran's standoff with nuclear watchdog: What will happen in the Middle East if IAEA cooperation is suspended?

On June 25, 2025, Iran's parliament unanimously passed a bill suspending all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), further escalating tensions in the Middle East. The decision came after attacks on Iran's nuclear sites—Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan—by Israel on June 13 and the US on June 22. The suspension of cooperation with the IAEA has halted monitoring of Iran's nuclear program, which could have serious global and regional consequences. Let's analyze the facts.

Iran's decision: Why and how?

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called the IAEA a "political tool" and said that cooperation would remain suspended until the safety of nuclear facilities was guaranteed. The Iranian Foreign Ministry claimed that the IAEA's June 12 condemnation resolution became a "pretext for attacks." The bill has been sent to the Guardian Council for final approval.

Consequences of ending IAEA cooperation

1. End of monitoring: The IAEA will no longer be able to conduct inspections at Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan. Investigations into a stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, which could be enough to make a nuclear weapon, have been halted.
2. Nuclear weapon threat: Experts believe that without monitoring, Iran could secretly develop nuclear weapons. This could escalate tensions with Israel and the US.
3. UN sanctions: The IAEA's June 12 report found Iran in non-compliance, threatening a return to sanctions at the UN Security Council.
4. Regional instability: Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which could affect global oil supplies. India, which imports 40% of its oil from Iran, could be affected.

IAEA's stance

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said at an emergency board meeting on June 23 that restoring cooperation was "crucial to a diplomatic solution." He appealed to Iran to resume inspections, but Iran rejected it. Grossi warned that the attacks caused local radioactive and chemical leaks in Natanz, although there is no risk of external radiation.

Global reaction

Russia and China called the IAEA's condemnation "biased", while Saudi Arabia and Qatar condemned the attacks. India maintained a neutral stance and advocated diplomacy.

Conclusion

Iran's discontinuation of cooperation with the IAEA makes its nuclear program opaque, raising the risk of war in the Middle East. If diplomacy fails, UN sanctions and military tensions could increase. The next few days will determine the direction of the region.