Israel's attack on Iran: To prevent nuclear threat or a plot for regime change? Rising tensions in the Middle East
Israel's claim and strategy
Israel carried out precision airstrikes on Iran's Defense Ministry, Natanz and Fordo nuclear facilities, and oil depots on June 13 and 15. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claimed that the attacks destroyed up to 60% of Iran's ballistic missile production units and killed several top Revolutionary Guards commanders, including General Hossein Salami. Netanyahu said in his address, "Iran's nuclear program and its 'destructive plan' against Israel threaten our existence. We will not tolerate it."
Netanyahu appealed to Iranian citizens to unite against the "tyrannical and oppressive regime", which analysts saw as a provocation for regime change. According to a BBC report, Israel believes that the economic crisis in Iran, lack of freedom of expression, and discontent over women and minority rights could lead to an uprising that could bring a pro-Israel government.
Motive for regime change?
Many experts believe that Israel's goal is not just to stop the nuclear program. Israel has long considered Iran's Islamic regime a threat to itself, especially because of its support to proxy groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Yemen's Houthi rebels. A Haaretz report said that Netanyahu's strategy may be to weaken the regime by creating instability in Iran, so that a government that is friendly towards Israel comes to power.
The Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK), an exiled Iranian opposition group that opposes the Islamic regime, is supported by Israel and some Western countries. According to the BBC, the MEK advocates regime change, but its popularity and influence are limited, making it doubtful that it can overthrow the regime. Some X posts claimed that Israel plans to bring about regime change in Iran with US support in collaboration with Gulf countries and Turkey, but this claim is unconfirmed.
Iran's response and challenges
Iran called these attacks a "violation of international law" and warned of retaliation. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, "Israel has misjudged the strength of the Iranian nation." Iranian media claimed the attacks killed 215 people, mostly civilians, although human rights organization HRANA confirmed 138 deaths. Iran activated air defense systems in its seven provinces and fired 150 missiles at Tel Aviv, killing three civilians in Israel.
Iran's economy is already affected by attacks on oil depots and gas fields such as South Pars, which halted 12 million cubic meters of gas production. The economic crisis and public discontent pose challenges to the regime, but the strength of the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militias is capable of protecting it from a coup.
US and global role
US President Donald Trump distanced himself from the attacks, but warned Iran not to target American interests. According to Haaretz, Israel's choice of timing—when nuclear talks between Iran and the US have stalled—was strategic, to derail the talks. Some analysts believe that Israel's action was not possible without US support, although there is no official confirmation of this.
Regional and global impact
Israeli attacks pushed oil prices to $80 per barrel, increasing economic pressure on oil importing countries like India. Groups like Hezbollah and Hamas intensified retaliatory attacks on Israel, raising the risk of a regional war. India adopted a neutral stance with both countries, but expressed concern about the impact on Chabahar port and oil imports.
Conclusion
Israeli attacks are clearly aimed at weakening Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure, but Netanyahu's appeal to the Iranian public to revolt and attacks on strategic targets point to an intention to change power. However, Iran's military strength and internal unity do not make it easy. Will this war lead to peace talks, or push the Middle East into chaos? This question is the biggest for the global community.
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